10/3/2023 0 Comments France - ukraine 2020A level of €100/MWh is a realistic assumption, which would constitute a six-fold increase in price from 2019. The price per MWh reached €210 on 10 March 2022! This high level will not last. The average daily price in 2019 was €14.6/MWh, before falling to €9.6/MWh in 2020 due to the pandemic. Increases in the price of gas and oil will reduce the purchasing power of French households and raise production costs for business. I – The economic shock: Short-term effectsġ) The first effect is of course on France’s energy bill The war in Ukraine will affect the French economy through eleven different channels. Ongoing study will clarify the analyses and the relevant calculations. This document is intended as a summary and refers to relevant work for further consideration. If consequences that are deemed negative are identified, this should not be read as a criticism of these policy choices, but rather as a contribution to how best to limit their negative impacts. Such an assessment is of course uncertain, as it requires a forecast of diplomatic and military developments and in particular involves critical assumptions about sanctions and economic policy responses. The purpose of this analysis is to open up discussion about how the war in Ukraine will affect the French economy. By Xavier Ragot, with contributions from Céline Antonin, Elliot Aurissergues, Christophe Blot, Eric Heyer, Paul Malliet, Mathieu Plane, Raoul Sampognaro, Xavier Timbeau, Grégory Verdugo.
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